Flood Risk and Preventive Choices: A Framework for Studying Human Behaviors.

The topic of flood phenomena has always been of considerable importance due to the high risks it entails, both in terms of potential economic and social damage and the jeopardizing of human lives themselves. The spread of climate change is making this topic even more relevant. This work aims to contribute to evaluating the role that human factors can play in responding to critical hydrogeological phenomena. In particular, we introduce an agent-based platform for analyzing social behaviors in these critical situations. In our experiments, we simulate a population that is faced with the risk of a potentially catastrophic event. In this scenario, citizens (modeled through cognitive agents) must assess the risk they face by relying on their sources of information and mutual trust, enabling them to respond effectively. Specifically, our contributions include (1) an analysis of some behavioral profiles of citizens and authorities; (2) the identification of the "dissonance between evaluation and action" effect, wherein an individual may behave differently from what their information sources suggest, despite having full trust in them in situations of particular risk; (3) the possibility of using the social structure as a "social risk absorber", enabling support for a higher level of risk. While the results obtained at this level of abstraction are not exhaustive, they identify phenomena that can occur in real-world scenarios and can be useful in defining general guidelines.

Trusting COVID-19 vaccines as individual and social goal.

Trust in vaccines and in the institutions responsible for their management is a key asset in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. By means of a structured multi-scales survey based on the socio-cognitive model of trust, this study investigates the interplay of institutional trust, confidence in COVID-19 vaccines, information habits, personal motivations, and background beliefs on the pandemic in determining willingness to vaccinate in a sample of Italian respondents (N = 4096). We observe substantial trust in public institutions and a strong vaccination intention. Theory-driven structural equation analysis revealed what factors act as important predictors of willingness to vaccinate: trust in vaccine manufacturers (which in turn is supported by trust in regulators), collectivist goals, self-perceived knowledgeability, reliance on traditional media for information gathering, and trust in institutional and scientific sources. In contrast, vaccine hesitancy, while confined to a minority, is more prominent in less educated and less affluent respondents. These findings can inform institutional decisions on vaccine communication and vaccination campaigns.

The Role of Trust in COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance: Considerations from a Systematic Review.

The goal of this research was to provide an overview of the role of trust in determining COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Trust proved to be a key issue in all the strategic phases of the pandemic, a decisive element for the success of the worldwide vaccination campaign. By introducing a comprehensive systematic review of the state-of-the-art (N = 43), we intend to shed light on the various forms of trust that have been considered and how these relate to citizens' vaccine acceptance. The analysis shows that trust has been used extensively, with particular reference to the COVID-19 vaccine, governments, manufacturers, healthcare systems, and science. A more in-depth analysis has also allowed us to evaluate the role that these factors have had and the social phenomena in which they have been decisive. Most notably, we proved that, in the different contributions, trust in the COVID-19 vaccine has a strong correlation with vaccine acceptance (R = 0.78, p < 0.01). Overall, vaccine acceptance emerges as a complex phenomenon that needs to be understood through the strictly interlaced relations of trust in the various factors coming into play. Besides clarifying what happened in previous years, the considerations included in this work also represent an important and useful interpretative framework to help public institutions and the healthcare system in the future.

All We Need Is Trust: How the COVID-19 Outbreak Reconfigured Trust in Italian Public Institutions.

The central focus of this research is the fast and crucial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial psychological, relational, and political construct: trust. We investigate how the consequences of the pandemic, in terms of healthcare, state intervention and impositions, and daily life and habits, have affected trust in public institutions in Italy, at the time when the contagion was rapidly spreading in the country (early March 2020). In this survey, addressed to 4260 Italian citizens, we analyzed and measured such impact, focusing on various aspects of trust. This attention to multiple dimensions of trust constitutes the key conceptual advantage of this research, since trust is a complex and layered construct, with its own internal dynamics. In particular, the analysis focuses on how citizens attribute trust to Public Authorities, in relation to the management of the health crisis: with regard to the measures and guidelines adopted, the purposes pursued, the motivations that determine them, their capacity for involvement, and their effectiveness for the containment of the virus itself. A pandemic creates a bilateral need for trust, both in Public Authorities (they have to rely on citizens' compliance and must try to promote and maintain their trust in order to be effective) and in citizens, since they need to feel that somebody can do something, can (has the power to) protect them, to act at the needed collective level. We are interested to explore how this need for trust affects the attributional process, regarding both attitudes and the corresponding decisions and actions. The most striking result of this survey is the very high level of institutional trust expressed by respondents: 75% of them trust Italian public authorities to be able to deal with the COVID-19 emergency. This is in sharp contrast with the relatively low levels of institutional trust characteristic of Italy, both historically and in recent surveys. Moreover, the survey allowed the discrimination of several potential predictors for trust, thus emphasizing factors that, during this crisis, are exhibiting an anomalous impact on trust.

How COVID-19 Changed the Information Needs of Italian Citizens.

Italy was the first European country to be affected by COVID-19, facing an unprecedented situation. The reaction required drastic solutions and highly restrictive measures, which severely tested the trust of the Italian people. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the introduced measures was not only linked to political decisions, but also to the choice of the Italian people to trust and rely on institutions, accepting such necessary measures. In this context, the role of information sources was fundamental, since they strongly influence public opinion. The central focus of this research was to assess the information seeking behavior (ISB) of the Italian citizens, to understand how they related to information and how their specific use of information influenced public opinion. By making use of a survey addressed to 4260 Italian citizens, we identified extraordinarily virtuous behavior in the population: people strongly modified their ISB in order to address the most reliable sources. In particular, we found a very high reliance on scientists, which is particularly striking, if compared to the past. Moreover, starting from the survey results, we used social simulation to estimate the evolution of public opinion. Comparing the ISB during and before COVID-19, we discovered that the shift in the ISB, during the pandemic, may have actually positively influenced public opinion, facilitating the acceptance of the costly restrictions introduced.